Technology substitution models for LCD and LED TVs

To accurately forecast the demand for and substitution of liquid crystal display (LCD) (cold cathode fluorescent lamp [CCFL] backlight) and light-emitting diode (LED) televisions, it is crucial for LCD manufacturing companies to allocate their resources. There are three popular substitution models for forecasting demand: the Lotka-Volterra competitive model, the Norton and Bass multigenerational innovation diffusion model, and the Marchetti and Nakicenovic technological substitution model. We used and compared these models to estimate the sales volume of 42-inch CCFL and LED televisions. Three criteria of forecasting accuracy were used to compare the forecasting capabilities of these models. The results showed that the technological substitution model was more accurate than other models.