Influence diagrams in analysis of discrete event simulation data

In this paper, influence diagrams (IDs) are used as simulation metamodels to aid simulation based decision making. A decision problem under consideration is studied using discrete event simulation with decision alternatives as simulation parameters. The simulation data are used to construct an ID that presents the changes in simulation state with chance nodes. The decision alternatives and objectives of the decision problem are included in the ID as decision and utility nodes. The solution of the ID gives the optimal decision alternatives, i.e., the values of the simulation parameters that, e.g., maximize the expected value of the utility function measuring the attainment of the objectives. Furthermore, the constructed ID enables the analysis of the consequences of the decision alternatives and performing effective what-if analyses. The paper illustrates the construction and analysis of IDs with two examples from the field of military aviation.