Failure Boundary Estimation for lateral collision avoidance manoeuvres

This paper proposes a method for predicting the point at which a simple lateral collision avoidance manoeuvre fails. It starts by defining the kinematic failure boundary for a range of conflict geometries and velocities. This relies on the assumption that the ownship aircraft is able to turn instantaneously. The dynamics of the ownship aircraft are then introduced in the form of a constant rate turn model. With knowledge of the kinematic boundary, two optimisation algorithms are used to estimate the location of the real failure boundary. A higher fidelity simulation environment is used to compare the boundary predictions. The shape of the failure boundary is found to be heavily connected to the kinematic boundary prediction. Some encounters where the ownship aircraft is travelling slower than the intruder were found to have large failure boundaries. The optimisation method is shown to perform well, and with alterations to the turn model, its accuracy can be improved. The paper finishes by demonstrating how the failure boundary is used to determine accurate collision avoidance logic. This is expected to significantly reduce the size and complexity of the verification problem.