Title :
Bayesian regularization BP Neural Network model for predicting oil-gas drilling cost
Author :
Yue, Zhao ; Songzheng, Zhao ; Tianshi, Liu
Author_Institution :
Manage. Sch., Northwestern Polytech. Univ., Xi´´an, China
Abstract :
Oil-gas drilling cost is an important indicator which reflects the economic benefit of oilfield enterprise. Following taking the characteristics of oil-gas drilling cost which belongs to subsidiary of CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) into account, determinants concerning oil-gas drilling cost are identified. Bayesian Regularization Back Propagation Neural Network (BRBPNN) is proposed to predict oil-gas drilling cost. Through comparing with Levenberg-Marquardt Back Propagation, Momentum Back Propagation, Variable Learning Rate Back Propagation models in terms of prediction precision, convergence rate and generalization ability, the results exhibit that BRBPNN has better comprehensive performances. Meanwhile, results also exhibit that BRBP model has the automated regularization parameter selection capability and may ensure the excellent adaptability and robustness. Thus, this study lays the foundation for the application of BRBPNN in the analysis of oil-gas drilling cost prediction.
Keywords :
Bayes methods; backpropagation; neural nets; oil drilling; petroleum industry; production engineering computing; BP neural network model; Bayesian regularization; CNPC; China National Petroleum Corporation; Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation; back propagation neural network; convergence rate; economic benefit; generalization ability; momentum back propagation; oil-gas drilling cost; oilfield enterprise; prediction precision; variable learning rate back propagation; Analytical models; Artificial neural networks; Bayesian methods; Convergence; Prediction algorithms; Predictive models; Training; BP neural network; Bayesian regularization; Oil-gas drilling cost prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Business Management and Electronic Information (BMEI), 2011 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Guangzhou
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-108-3
DOI :
10.1109/ICBMEI.2011.5917952