The application of several gray models in prediction of electricity consumption in rural areas

In recent years, with the sustained and rapid development of economy and a huge demand for energy consumption in rural areas, the electricity´s supply can not meet the requirements of rural electricity consumption development, and turns into a bottleneck to economic development in rural areas. It became particularly important that the author took a research of electricity consumption in rural areas and then established a predicted model of regional electricity consumption in rural areas. Based on the electricity consumption data of rural areas from 2000 to 2009, several gray models were used to forecast electricity consumption in rural areas of our country and the forecasting results were compared and analyzed. The results showed that the GM (1,1) model, which based on buffer operator, was suitable to do a long-term forecast of electricity consumption in rural areas, and the author predicted the next 6 years of electricity consumption in rural areas. At last, the author put forwards the adjust and control measures based on the forecasting results.