Forecast Models and Their Comparison on Tourism Passenger of Gansu Province

Author

Tian Fu Peng ; Wang Chun Li

Author_Institution

Inst. of Modern Technol. Educ., Northwest Univ. for Nat., Lanzhou, China

Volume

1

fYear

2013

fDate

26-27 Aug. 2013

Firstpage

78

Lastpage

81

Abstract

It is useful to exactly forecast the tourism passenger in tourism layout and management. The linear regression model is often used in passenger in tourism layout. But its precision is worth discussing. Quantitative analysis is made to the four forecast models in a case study of the tourism passenger of Gansu province. The research suggests that the linear regression model has the lowest precision in the four models, the Grey model of GM(1,1) is suitable for the data of 3~6 years, and the exponent model fits for the data of longer series.

Keywords

forecasting theory; grey systems; regression analysis; travel industry; Gansu province; forecast models; grey model; linear regression model; tourism layout; tourism management; tourism passenger prediction; Analytical models; Biological system modeling; Data models; Forecasting; Linear regression; Predictive models; Smoothing methods; absolute error; forecast model; tourism passengers;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Intelligent Human-Machine Systems and Cybernetics (IHMSC), 2013 5th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Hangzhou

Print_ISBN

978-0-7695-5011-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/IHMSC.2013.26

Filename

6643838