Risk Identification and Evaluation of Weapons Development

In this paper, the risk evaluation problem in developing weapon is investigated, and a systematized risk evaluation approach based on the independent third party is proposed. Concretely, the necessity of carrying out the risk evaluation based on the independent third party in developing weapon is discussed, and the risk factors in developing weapon are identified. In the stage of choosing the developer, the technical risk is regarded as the deviation among performance, cost, progress and the expected target, and then a risk evaluation model based on the optimal membership degree is presented to choose the optimal developer.