Monitoring and interpreting evolved behaviours in an oligopoly

In a marketplace competition, participants develop strategies to maximise their returns. These strategies are based on the participants´ knowledge and beliefs of the marketplace. For instance, in an oligopolistic marketplace, participants may know the relativity of their product´s price with respect to other participants and believe that this relativity and its history critically influences their profits. It is possible to simulate such a marketplace using game theory concepts and a genetic algorithm. This paper describes a simulation of the Australian petroleum industry based on such concepts. Experimental results show the emergence of apparent collusion amongst participants and the emergence and disappearance of ephemeral, rogue strategies. Techniques used to monitor and interpret these phenomena are described