Forecasting methods used for performance´s simulation and optimization of photovoltaic grids

Author

Dunea, Adrian N. ; Dunea, Daniel N. ; Moise, Virgil I. ; Olariu, Marina F.

Author_Institution

Fac. of Electr. Eng., Univ. Valahia, Targoviste, Romania

Volume

4

fYear

2001

fDate

2001

Abstract

The energy-efficiency statistical model presented below is an acceptable and quickly method of photovoltaic grid behavior forecasting, for specific photovoltaic energy producing application. Using the standard method of efficiency evaluation, a statistical model for photovoltaic grids is proposed, transposing collected data in the specified model pattern of the exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average statistical techniques. These aims were included in a prospective software program (EnergOptimizer), which provide advanced features of designing, forecasting and three-dimensional shading prediction tool. Therefore, a systematic analysis of the photovoltaic grids, in energy-efficiency respect, following this conception will bring benefits in the simulation and optimization background of photovoltaic projects

Keywords

autoregressive moving average processes; energy conservation; optimisation; photovoltaic power systems; power system CAD; power system analysis computing; power system planning; software packages; statistical analysis; technological forecasting; EnergOptimizer software; autoregressive integrated moving average statistical techniques; efficiency evaluation; energy-efficiency statistical model; forecasting methods; performance optimization; performance simulation; photovoltaic grids; three-dimensional shading prediction tool; Data acquisition; Energy efficiency; Equations; Load forecasting; Optimization methods; Performance evaluation; Photovoltaic systems; Predictive models; Smoothing methods; Solar power generation;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power Tech Proceedings, 2001 IEEE Porto

Conference_Location

Porto

Print_ISBN

0-7803-7139-9

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PTC.2001.964864

Filename

964864