The Multiple Sectional Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on MGM(1,N| tan(k-tau)p,sin(k-tau)p) Model

As for the characteristics of the time-lag and periodic in the multiple sectional short-term traffic flow, this paper proposes a new Multi-variable triangle model through introducing delay factor τ and periodic factor p into MGM(1, N) model. In this article, we research modeling process, parameter estimation, precision inspection, forecasting and so on. During the modeling, we establish a optimal function about average relative error of delay factor and periodic factor, then solving the model by the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. In the end, the new model is applied for multiple sectional short-term traffic flow forecasting. Comparing with the results of MGM(1, N) model, it is proved that the new model is an effective method of analyzing and forecasting.