Probabilistic and deterministic load flows methods in power systems reliability estimation

The paper extends the methods of evaluating the continuity in supplying electric power systems using comparative methods of the probabilistic load flow and the stochastic load flow. In the first case a binomial distribution for the units generators and a normal one for the loads are accepted. Branch outages are simulated by fictitious power injections at the corresponding nodes. The loss of load probability and expected energy not supplied are estimated with Gauss Laplace integral functions. The results are compared with the ones obtained through a reliability simulation with DigSILENT Power Factory application.