Research about the Influence of Oil Price Uncertainty on World Economic Fluctuation

Although many scholars have studied the issues of oil price fluctuation since 1970, only few scholars have studied the issues of oil price uncertainty. Firstly moving standard deviation and GARCH models are adopted to measure the world oil price uncertainty from 1970 to 2008. The results indicate that oil price uncertainty has remarkable leverage effect and in recent years the uncertainty value is obviously lower than the values between 1970s and 1990s. Then taking world and OECD as the research sample, multivariable VAR model is used to make empirical test about the influence of oil price uncertainty on economic fluctuation. Empirical results indicate that oil price uncertainty can obviously reduce GDP growth rate and increase inflation.