Relational Analysis of Causes of Bullwhip Effect in a Multi-layer Model

Based on the beer game experiment, this paper aimed to investigate the impact of demand forecasting, order batching and shortage gaming on the supply chain, which involves retailers, distributors and manufacturers being subject to the bullwhip effect. Relational analysis based on the grey system theory is employed to measure the impacts on causes of the bullwhip effect in the presence of both rigid and flexible production technology. In all cases, lead time account for the largest impact to the bullwhip effect at the retailer and distributor layers. At the manufacturer layer, lead times are also most accountable for the bullwhip effect under rigid production technology, but the weight for actual demand in the current period is the most accountable under flexible production technology. The conclusions of this paper provide valuable guidelines for improving supply chain efficiency