Prediction of change of winter wheat in north China by using IPCC-AR4 model data

Spatial and temporal mismatches between coarse resolution output of global climate models (GCMs) and fine resolution data requirements of crop models are the major obstacles for assessing the site-specific climatic impacts of climate change on the production of winter wheat. Based on the output of IPCC AR4 model and observation data, statistical downscaling of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature in North China was analyzed. With the combination crop model and climate mode, the effects of climate change on the winter wheat production of North China were simulated. Some conclusions from the study might be drawn as follows: Under the IPCC-B1 Scenario, the length of winter wheat growing season in North China would be shortened from 2010 to 2099, and its yield would be decreased.