New Approach to Create Future High Reliability NASA Launch Vehicle Systems

A new NASA approach to launch vehicle (LV) design and development is recommended, which will increase human rated LV reliability in the future. At its core, the new approach includes probabilistic modeling and simulation methods, which will enable the low design margins and large loading uncertainties inherent in LVs to be quantified and addressed, like they have not been on past LV programs. In order to implement the new approach, NASA will need to emphasize probabilistic modeling and simulation in its new Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) programs, like crew exploration vehicle (CEV), cargo launch vehicle (CaLV), and crew launch vehicle (CLV), in order to move towards more reliable systems. This will require increased investment in probabilistic modeling and simulation analysis upfront. Unfortunately, the current approach to fielding these new systems in NASA is to use heritage hardware, which inherently has unqualified low design margins and large loading uncertainties, due to the way past programs have been implemented. The current approach unmodified will result in LV systems that have the same low reliability as past fielded systems. Therefore, it is recommended that NASA increase its investment in probabilistic modeling and simulation for the new VSE programs, CEV, CLV, and CaLV. One possible solution to increasing the NASA investment in probabilistic modeling and simulation for the VSE, in times of limited budget, is to obtain support from the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD), where the current Associate Administrator, Lisa Porter, is emphasizing probabilistic modeling and simulation. It is recommended that the ARMD probabilistic modeling and simulation expertise and Research & Technology be focused on the VSE program needs, in order to assure the development of more reliable LV systems in the future