Title :
Simulation on demand for pricing many securities
Author :
Liu, Ming ; Nelson, Barry L. ; Staum, Jeremy
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Ind. Eng. & Manage. Sci., Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL, USA
Abstract :
We develop a sequential experiment design procedure to construct multiple metamodels based on a single stochastic simulation model. We apply the procedure to approximate many securities´ prices as functions of a financial scenario. We propose a cross-validation method that adds design points and simulation effort at the design points to target all metamodels´ relative prediction errors. To improve the expected quality of the metamodels given randomness of the scenario that is an input to the simulation model, we also propose a way to choose design points so that the scenario is likely to fall inside their convex hull.
Keywords :
pricing; simulation; stochastic processes; cross-validation method; metamodel relative prediction errors; pricing demand; securities price; sequential experiment design procedure; single stochastic simulation model; Computational modeling; Correlation; Mathematical model; Metamodeling; Predictive models; Security; Stochastic processes;
Conference_Titel :
Simulation Conference (WSC), Proceedings of the 2010 Winter
Conference_Location :
Baltimore, MD
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-9866-6
DOI :
10.1109/WSC.2010.5678973