Title :
Expectations´ Self-Fulfillment and Self-Destroying in Socio-Economic Systems
Author :
Gao, Yan ; Li, Honggang
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Manage., Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing, China
Abstract :
Expectations´ self-fulfillment and self-destroying co-exist in socio-economic systems, which makes the evolution of the systems seem to be mysterious to us. We regard these collective phenomenon arise from people´s ways to expect and act, namely, the expectation mode and action strategy, and propose a simple agent-based model in consideration of four direct combinations of general expectation modes and action strategies to detect the underlying mechanism. We find that the action strategy, or originally, the win-loss rule of the system, is indeed a crucial factor to determine whether the evolution of the systems would satisfy people´s expectations.
Keywords :
expectation-maximisation algorithm; socio-economic effects; action strategy; agent-based model; expectation self-fulfillment; socio-economic systems; system win-loss rule; Automatic testing; Automation; Conference management; Economic forecasting; Investments; Macroeconomics; Numerical simulation; System testing; Technology management; Uncertainty; expectations´ self-destroying; expectations´ self-fulfillment; socio-economic systems;
Conference_Titel :
Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation, 2009. ICICTA '09. Second International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Changsha, Hunan
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3804-4
DOI :
10.1109/ICICTA.2009.790