Generating peaking unit reliability model

The authors present an eight-state peaking generator unit reliability model based on a nine-year analysis of Alberta Power Limited´s generator outage reporting system structured according to the Canadian Electrical Association´s national database. Based on the frequency balance approach, the generalized closed-form solutions for the state possibilities are developed and presented. Some distinctive failure patterns exhibited by peaking generator units are revealed. Several case studies are presented to illustrate the critical problem of estimating model parameters, particularly the mean duration in the reserve shut-down state. Seasonal model parameters are presented to reveal the possible inaccuracies in the use of annual parameters for predicting the performance of peaking generation units in generation planning studies