The effect of using a systems approach to project control within the U.S. defense industry

Complex systems are ubiquitous in weapon development projects within the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). For these large and expensive efforts which inevitably seek to advance the state of technology, traditional project management techniques have frequently failed to meet expectations. The U.S. Government Accountability Office has found that DoD programs take 22 months longer than expected and over 80% experience higher costs than expected. We argue that a) these projects are themselves complex systems, and b) these traditional approaches have failed because their linear logic inadequately captures the dynamics of complex adaptive systems. Drawing from approaches employed in other fields to model these kinds of systems, authors have begun exploring the utility of system dynamics as a tool for improving project management of complex development projects. The authors will present an overview of the characteristics of a complex system, a dynamic hypothesis, and a formal simulation model to help identify better project management strategies. Using a set of case studies, the authors will present insights and discuss the potential utility of this approach for improving the design and implementation of project management controls. Initial results provide insights and potential recommendations for improved success in DoD project management.