Research on emergency evacuation traffic trip generation forecasting based on Logistic regression

This paper puts forward a method based on Logistic regression of emergency evacuation traffic trip generation forecasting model. Based on analysis of Xiamen residents earthquake evacuation survey data, the software of applied statistic SPSS could establish emergency evacuation traffic trip generation forecasting model by Logistic regression. This model could predict the probability of all evacuation modes of residents to obtain the better emergency processing plan of traffic evacuation in earthquake disasters. Subsequently, for the purpose of making the more reasonable and effective of city emergency management plan, the test sample would be simulated to accuracy and fitting degree of the prediction model result.