Stochastic simulation of system reliability as a tool for maintenance strategy optimization in a cement plant

This study aims to demonstrate the value of stochastic simulation as a tool in predicting the change in system reliability in a cement plant brought about by changes in maintenance policy and strategy. The first step in creating such a simulation model was the characterization of the reliability of the equipment in the plant. A methodology is shown for selecting an appropriate reliability model for the components. A simulation model was then developed which uses random number generators to simulate component failures. The model allows for adjustments to be made to such maintenance practices as inspections, shutdowns, condition monitoring, fixed replacements, and spare parts management. Net-present-value and mean-variance analyses were then performed to compare the resulting estimated changes in production levels, maintenance costs, and number of stops brought about by the changes in simulated maintenance strategies.