Title :
Aircraft spares consumption prediction based on combined forecasting method
Author :
Guo Feng ; Liu Chen-yu ; Zhou Bin ; Wang Yu-hai
Author_Institution :
Naval Aeronaut. Eng. Inst., Qingdao, China
Abstract :
According to the problem in the work of the application and order of Spares, propose to found a prediction model based on the combined forecasting method, comprehensively utilizing the linear exponential smoothing, secondary exponential smoothing and cubic exponential smoothing to optimize the results of these three methods, solved it by the nonlinear programming method. The prediction results show that the model predicts accurately, with high utility and promotion value.
Keywords :
aerospace components; forecasting theory; maintenance engineering; nonlinear programming; smoothing methods; aircraft spare consumption prediction; combined forecasting method; cubic exponential smoothing; linear exponential smoothing; nonlinear programming method; prediction model; secondary exponential smoothing; Forecasting; Indexes; combined forecasting; cubic exponential smoothing; linear exponential smoothing; secondary exponential smoothing; spares consumption;
Conference_Titel :
Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering (ICIII), 2012 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Sanya
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-1932-4
DOI :
10.1109/ICIII.2012.6339837