Applying Knowledge Elicitation to Improve Web Effort Estimation: A Case Study

OBJECTIVE - The objective of this paper is to describe a case study where Bayesian Networks (BNs) were used to construct an expert-based Web effort model. METHOD - We built a single-company BN model solely elicited from expert knowledge, where the domain expert was an experienced Web project manager from a small Web company in Auckland, New Zealand. This model was validated using data from 22 past finished Web projects. RESULTS - The BN model has to date been successfully used to estimate effort for numerous Web projects. CONCLUSIONS - Our results suggest that, at least for the Web Company that participated in this case study, the use of a model that allows the representation of uncertainty, inherent in effort estimation, can outperform expert-based estimates. Another nine companies have also benefited from using Bayesian Networks, with very promising results.