Managing discovery risks - a Tevatron case study

In this paper, a methodology based on earned value management system is explained to measure and manage discovery risks. Metrics based on the initial basis of estimate and familiar earned value measures are used to monitor risks of discovery. Subsequently, these metrics are used to refine the project and adjust tasks and resource assignments to minimize the unavailability of the user facility. One of the measures is the variance at phase completion. From the phased model of the WBS, variance at completion is examined for various project baselines at the end of project phases. This allowed for understanding the risk of not only cost and schedule, but also the discovery risks. Since similar risk measurement data is not available within the organization, these metrics also allows us to define risk baselines for future scientific projects that involve discovery along with state of the art system development