Risk Analysis Using Extended Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

One of the challenges in Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) is identifying the relationships between risk factors and risks. In this paper we propose using Extended Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to analyze the relationships between risk factors and risks. E-FCMs are suggested by Hagiwara to represent causal relationships more naturally. The main differences between E-FCMs and conventional Fuzzy Cognitive Maps are the following: E-FCMs have non-linear membership functions, conditional weights, and time delay weights. Therefore E-FCMs are suitable for risk analysis as all features of E-FCMs are more informative and can fit the needs of Risk Analysis. In this paper we suggest a framework to analyze risks using E-FCMs and extend E-FCMs themselves by introducing a special graphical representation for risk analysis. We also suggest a framework for group decision making using E-FCMs. Particularly, we explore the Software Project Management (SPM) and discuss risk analysis of SPM applying E-FCMs.