Probabilistic analysis of surface crack in round bars under bending moments

This paper presents the probabilistic analysis of surface crack in round bars subjected to bending moment using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A probabilistic model based on an elastic finite element analysis (FEA) was developed to evaluate the failure probability obtained using a K-estimation method. This method is based on the stress intensity factor (SIF) where the failure occurred when the SIF was assumed to exceed the critical SIF. It was found that, the K-estimation method was adequate to evaluate the failure probability of the bars when compared with the results obtained using the probabilistic FEA approach. The advantage of K-estimation methods was the reduction of the computational time and cost significantly.