Duration Estimation, a New Approach in Critical Chain Scheduling

Critical chain project management (CCPM) has been introduced in 1997 by Goldratt which was known for its theory, theory of constraint. Since then CCPM attracted a great attention both in academic world and execution communities. One of the most controversial points of the CCPM which is a subject of critics is the way it suggests for activity duration estimation. This paper proposes a new method for duration estimation of activities by measuring the amount of uncertainty embedded in each activity duration and then taking out of safety times associated with this uncertainty. The validity of the proposed method is tested by conducting a computer simulation on some test problems. Simulation analysis shows that the proposed method yields schedules which are more reliable than the schedules produced by original CCPM method of duration estimation.