Probabilistic power flow calculation method for low-voltage microgrid

The low-voltage microgrid, a typical three phase asymmetric system, usually consists of many distributed generations (DGs) and loads, the injection power of them are mostly uncertain. In this paper, a novel method to calculate the probabilistic load flow of low-voltage microgrid is proposed. The three-phase model of each component in the network is established, then the time series probability models are built, respectively, due to the time variations of load, and the output power of DGs, such as photovoltaic and wind power. Then the algorithm called “fixed-point iteration” is adopted to solve the basic asymmetric load flow, and Monte Carlo method is used to simulate probability. Experimental results on IEEE 123 node test feeder case show that the proposed method can effectively solve the hard problems in the low-voltage microgrid, such as unbalanced load flow, non-all-phase operation and uncertain injection power.