Title :
Risk prediction of agricultural drought in China
Author :
Gong, Zaiwu ; Sun, Ruiling ; Li, Lianshui
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Inf. Sci. & Technol., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
This paper analyzes the occurrence regularity of agricultural drought affected area during 1978-2006 in China. It is shown that China will be in the state of agricultural drought in a long term, and the degree of disaster caused by drought will be exacerbated. The grey catastrophe model is used to predict the trend of risk caused by agricultural drought in the future of China. The result shows that the large-scale risk of agricultural drought will occur in 2012. This paper can offer decision basis for disaster prevention and reduction of the agricultural drought by the risk prediction.
Keywords :
agriculture; disasters; hydrology; risk management; China; agricultural drought; grey catastrophe model; risk prediction; Agriculture; Biological system modeling; Information science; Markov processes; Predictive models; Presses; GM(1,1); agricultural drought; risk prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD), 2010 Seventh International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Yantai, Shandong
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5931-5
DOI :
10.1109/FSKD.2010.5569129
