The influence of climate change on hydro generation in Brazil

More than 85% of the total electricity generation in Brazil comes from Hydro Plants. The hydroelectricity is a good example of renewable resources which, in this case, depends greatly on the precipitation. An optimization program is used in order to determine the dispatches of the plants and to minimize the operational costs. Given a set of hydro plants it is possible to calculate the power system assured energy or the amount of energy available to supply the load at a deficit risk of 5%. However, climate change can cause great variation on the assured energy. The problem drastically aggravates for the new available hydro potentials located in the Amazon region which probably will be affected by the global warming. This paper provides the initial results of a research project sponsored by generation companies and the regulatory agency in Brazil.