Determining the risk operation states of power systems in the presence of wind power plants

The power produced by wind power plants has an extremely random character due to the intermittency of wind. This leads to problems in balancing the power production and demand in the power systems. To overcome this problem, wind power forecast is used. However, as in any prediction tasks, wind power forecasting does not offer perfect results. It is the purpose of this paper to propose a method based on Monte Carlo simulations and artificial intelligence techniques to assess the impact of the deviation of the generated wind power from the predicted values on the power systems when no corrective measures are taken. The method is tested on an IEEE network as well as on a real electric network from the Romanian power system and the results and drawn conclusions are presented here.