A method coupling fuzzy algorithm and Bayesian network for calculation of operation risk of major highway infrastructure

Disastrous and traffic incidents have serious impact on the operation risk of major highway infrastructure, and risk calculation method is the basis for its safety management decision. Based on analysis of safety factors of major highway infrastructure, a combined method coupling fuzzy algorithm and Bayesian network is presented to calculate its operation risk under various events, in which fuzzy algorithm is used to calculate the operation risk of management units, and Bayesian network to deal with the risk relationship between management units. The method can comprehensively deal with various complicated relationship between safety factors of major infrastructure, and rationally reflect its subjective and objective safety. Furthermore, it can conduct forward reasoning in risk prediction and backward reasoning in cause or cause-effect network diagnosis, thus suitable for constructing safety management system for major highway infrastructures. Finally, a case study of Hangzhou Bay Bridge was illustrated for application of the presented method.