Title :
Transmission investment decision analysis using fuzzy binomial tree
Author :
Ming, Zeng ; Kuo, Tian ; Fan, Yan
Author_Institution :
Res. Centre of Energy & Electr. Econ., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
Abstract :
The abundant market participants and transactions, as well as the flexibility of the power system planning and operation make tremendous challenges to the transmission investment. According to the real-option characteristics of transmission investment, the framework of the transmission investment decision is given. Then the market-clearing midel is bulit to realize the most efficient operation of the power market. To reduce the impact of the uncertainty of the price fluctuations, the fuzzy binomial tree model is given and applied to the evaluation of the option value. Take the IEEE-7 system as an example, the three cases, such as the respectively investment of the lines, and both of them, is analysised and compared. And the results verify the rationality and efficiency of the models.
Keywords :
fuzzy set theory; investment; power markets; power transmission economics; power transmission planning; pricing; trees (mathematics); IEEE-7 system; fuzzy binomial tree model; market participants; market transactions; market-clearing model; power market; power system planning; price fluctuations; transmission investment decision analysis; Biological system modeling; Economics; Electricity supply industry; Fluctuations; Investments; Power systems; Pricing; fuzzy binomial tree; price fluctuation; real option; transmission investment;
Conference_Titel :
Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD), 2010 Seventh International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Yantai, Shandong
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5931-5
DOI :
10.1109/FSKD.2010.5569190
