Flexible dimensioning of control reserve for future energy scenarios

The growth of renewable electricity production strongly influences the electrical energy supply. In particular, fluctuating wind and photovoltaic have encouraged the preconception that there is a need for higher reserve capacities of TSOs to offset forecast errors. Therefore, a model is developed which is capable of calculating the control reserve size (namely secondary and tertiary control reserve) within future energy scenarios by the hour. The model is verified using data from 2010 for calibration and is applied to different energy scenarios for 2023 and 2033. The conclusion is, that the expected changes in the German power production portfolio will lead to a rising but especially more volatile demand for tertiary control reserve. This finding contradicts with today´s tendering practice for control reserve. For secondary control reserve, no significant changes can be expected.