Multi-Scale Predictability of High-Impact Weather in the Battlespace Environment

The objective of this project is to determine the predictability and define the methodologies for effective ensemble prediction of high-impact weather in the battle-space environment. To accomplish this goal, we test and evaluate methodologies for the generation of initial condition perturbations in ensemble forecasts. We also test and evaluate methodologies for the inclusion of model error in ensemble design, specifically testing the impact of stochastic perturbations to the model tendencies produced by the parameterization of deep convection. The first parameters that we examine here are tropical cyclone track forecasts, and upper and lower tropospheric wind speed