Monte-Carlo based assessments for future generation investment — A case study of Thailand

This paper uses a novel generation investment and planning decision support tool to assess the potential costs of different possible future generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030. These costs are estimated given Thailand´s existing generation portfolio and presently uncertain future fossil fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, national electricity demand, and plant capital costs. The tool incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques to determine expected industry generation costs, associated cost uncertainties, and CO₂ emissions. The case study results show that a future carbon price can play a vital role in reducing industry-wide emissions as well as determining the economic viability of different generation technologies. More generally, the results highlight the value of the tool in facilitating multiple criteria generation investment decision making involving costs, risks, and emissions.