Operation planning and load prediction for microgrid using thermal demand estimation

Microgrid is one of the solutions to supply stable electrical power with a large amount of intermittent renewable sources. However, efficiency of DGs and ESSs in microgrid might drop to a lower value because of microgrid operation, and there is a possibility that the convenience of a consumer may be spoiled. This paper shows a load forecast method and an optimized operation planning for DGs and ESSs in microgird to solve this problem. It is possible to estimate high accuracy electrical load by using a pattern data of power consumption not including power consumption of heat sources and an operation planning of the heat sources which run according to heat load prediction. The operation planning of DGs and ESSs consider direct-current characteristics of ESSs. As a result, error of SOC between planning and real-time operation decreases.