The Annual Runoff Forecasting Research Based on the Theory of Cointegration and Error Correction Model

Author

Zhang, Li-ping ; Song, Xingyuan ; Sheng, Tieyuan ; Peng, Tao

Author_Institution

State Key Lab. of Water Resources & Hydropower Eng. Sci., Wuhan Univ., Wuhan

fYear

2009

fDate

23-24 May 2009

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

4

Abstract

An annual runoff forecasting method is presented based on unit root test, cointegration test and error correction model of the upper and lower reaches of the Second Songhua River. The method of cointegration analysis is applied to the annual runoff data of the Baishan and Fengman hydrology Stations; then the error correction model is set up, which can predict the annual runoff of Fengman hydrology Station from 1989 to 1998. The results show that the model based on cointegration analysis and error correction is suitable in runoff forecasting.

Keywords

forecasting theory; hydrology; rivers; time series; Baishan hydrology station; Fengman hydrology station; annual runoff forecasting method; cointegration test; error correction model; second Songhua river; time series; unit root test; Electrochemical machining; Error correction; Hydrology; Laboratories; Predictive models; Rivers; Testing; Time series analysis; Water resources; Weather forecasting;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Intelligent Systems and Applications, 2009. ISA 2009. International Workshop on

Conference_Location

Wuhan

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-3893-8

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-3894-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/IWISA.2009.5073163

Filename

5073163