• DocumentCode
    2054613
  • Title

    No title

  • fYear
    2012
  • fDate
    22-26 July 2012
  • Firstpage
    1
  • Lastpage
    1
  • Abstract
    This paper presents a new model for optimal trading of wind power in day-ahead (DA) electricity markets under uncertainty in wind power and prices. The model considers settlement mechanisms in markets with locational marginal prices (LMPs), where wind power is not necessarily penalized from deviations between DA schedule and real-time (RT) dispatch. We use kernel density estimation to produce a probabilistic wind power forecast, whereas uncertainties in DA and RT prices are assumed to be Gaussian. Utility theory and conditional value at risk (CVAR) are used to represent the risk preferences of the wind power producers. The model is tested on real-world data from a large-scale wind farm in the United States. Optimal DA bids are derived under different assumptions for risk preferences and deviation penalty schemes. The results show that in the absence of a deviation penalty, the optimal bidding strategy is largely driven by price expectations. A deviation penalty brings the bid closer to the expected wind power forecast. Furthermore, the results illustrate that the proposed model can effectively control the trade-off between risk and return for wind power producers operating in volatile electricity markets.
  • Keywords
    Electricity supply industry; Kernel; Real-time systems; Schedules; Uncertainty; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2012 IEEE
  • Conference_Location
    San Diego, CA
  • ISSN
    1944-9925
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4673-2727-5
  • Electronic_ISBN
    1944-9925
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/PESGM.2012.6345145
  • Filename
    6345145