DocumentCode
2054613
Title
No title
fYear
2012
fDate
22-26 July 2012
Firstpage
1
Lastpage
1
Abstract
This paper presents a new model for optimal trading of wind power in day-ahead (DA) electricity markets under uncertainty in wind power and prices. The model considers settlement mechanisms in markets with locational marginal prices (LMPs), where wind power is not necessarily penalized from deviations between DA schedule and real-time (RT) dispatch. We use kernel density estimation to produce a probabilistic wind power forecast, whereas uncertainties in DA and RT prices are assumed to be Gaussian. Utility theory and conditional value at risk (CVAR) are used to represent the risk preferences of the wind power producers. The model is tested on real-world data from a large-scale wind farm in the United States. Optimal DA bids are derived under different assumptions for risk preferences and deviation penalty schemes. The results show that in the absence of a deviation penalty, the optimal bidding strategy is largely driven by price expectations. A deviation penalty brings the bid closer to the expected wind power forecast. Furthermore, the results illustrate that the proposed model can effectively control the trade-off between risk and return for wind power producers operating in volatile electricity markets.
Keywords
Electricity supply industry; Kernel; Real-time systems; Schedules; Uncertainty; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2012 IEEE
Conference_Location
San Diego, CA
ISSN
1944-9925
Print_ISBN
978-1-4673-2727-5
Electronic_ISBN
1944-9925
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/PESGM.2012.6345145
Filename
6345145
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