Lightning Strokes-Theoretical Model and Determination of Possible Striking Points

This paper presents a method of calculating the possible striking points of lightning and their probabilities. The calculations are based on a dynamic electromagnetic model. This model is based on the Wave-Pair concept which is presented as an analytical model for calculating the electric field strengths at a desired observation point. Based on that model the electric field strength values are calculated at certain chosen points. When those fields exceed critical field strength, an up going discharge starts from each point. When one of these up going discharges meets the down going Leader the path is made for the Return Stroke. This method is compared with the Rolling Sphere Method, and the comparison yield evidence that the proposed model is more accurate results. A study case of calculating the probability of lightning stroke to a complex of buildings and installations is also given.