Research on arrival time prediction and approach sequencing based on uncertain methods

In order to improve the accuracy of prediction of aircraft arrival-time and the stability of queue in the terminal airspace, a probabilistic model for the type of aircrafts to over the border point was established through analysis of the main factors influencing the accuracy of estimated time of arrival (ETA). Then, a probabilistic methods for ETA was built using the actual flight data. On this basis, probabilistic methods for calculating the probability of the main factors and ETA of various factors on the degree of influence based on Bayesian network was proposed using data mining. The results show that the probabilistic methods for ETA could improve accuracy of ETA and the stability of queue.