Probabilistic round trip contamination analysis of a Mars Sample acquisition and handling process using Markovian decompositions

A method for evaluating the probability of a Viable Earth Microorganism (VEM) contaminating a sample during the sample acquisition and handling (SAH) process of a potential future Mars Sample Return mission is developed. A scenario where multiple core samples would be acquired using a rotary percussive coring tool, deployed from an arm on a MER class rover is analyzed. The analysis is conducted in a structured way by decomposing sample acquisition and handling process into a series of discrete time steps, and breaking the physical system into a set of relevant components. At each discrete time step, two key functions are defined: The probability of a VEM being released from each component, and the transport matrix, which represents the probability of VEM transport from one component to another. By defining the expected the number of VEMs on each component at the start of the sampling process, these decompositions allow the expected number of VEMs on each component at each sampling step to be represented as a Markov chain. This formalism provides a rigorous mathematical framework in which to analyze the probability of a VEM entering the sample chain, as well as making the analysis tractable by breaking the process down into small analyzable steps.