Title :
Modelling Inbound Tourism Demand in Shanghai
Author :
Yuan Yujie ; Wang Zheng
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Geogr., East China Normal Univ., Shanghai, China
Abstract :
This paper suggests a first-order autoregressive distributed lag (FADL) model, which estimated base on the data of inbound tourism demand in Shanghai, form 1978 to 2008. The estimated results show the impacts of crisis events on inbound tourism, and the difference of the impacts between "1997 Asian financial crisis" and "2007 subprime mortgage crisis". One of the forecasts for Shanghai is 9.12% growth rate of the number of inbound tourists in 2009.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; economic cycles; travel industry; Asian financial crisis; Shanghai; crisis events; first-order autoregressive distributed lag model; inbound tourism demand modelling; subprime mortgage crisis; Autoregressive processes; Content addressable storage; Crisis management; Decision making; Demand forecasting; Diseases; Geography; Influenza; Loans and mortgages; Statistics;
Conference_Titel :
Management and Service Science, 2009. MASS '09. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Wuhan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4638-4
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4639-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICMSS.2009.5300886
