The estimation of forecasting models adequacy in dealing information systems

Author

Shamsha, B.V. ; Fedorov, E.G. ; Abed, Al-Guli

Author_Institution

Dept. of Inf. Manage. Syst., Kharkov Nat. Univ. of Radioelectron., Ukraine

fYear

2004

fDate

28-28 Feb. 2004

Firstpage

368

Lastpage

371

Abstract

In This work the procedures of an estimation of forecasting models adequacy on foreign exchange market are given. A forecasting model was built by ARIMA method. Forecasting model to the complex diagnostic verification through the analysis of autocorrelation functions, hollow-charge peridogram of residual errors and confidence intervals of forecasting values are suggested. The problem of adequacy estimation is very important and necessary.

Keywords

autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; foreign exchange trading; information systems; adequacy estimation; autocorrelation functions; autoregression and integrated moving average method; complex diagnostic verification; forecasting models; forecasting values; foreign exchange market; hollow charge peridogram; information systems; residual errors; Data analysis; Decision making; Economic forecasting; Equations; Erbium; Exchange rates; Information management; Information systems; Predictive models; Radio spectrum management;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Modern Problems of Radio Engineering, Telecommunications and Computer Science, 2004. Proceedings of the International Conference

Conference_Location

Lviv-Slavsko, Ukraine

Print_ISBN

966-553-380-0

Type

conf

Filename

1365988