Bayesian Theory and Robust Control Strategy in Risk Management of Large-Scale Engineering Project

A novel method to identify the index of node importance and the critical path from the view of system theory, information theory and control theory is proposed in this paper to improve project management level and reduce and evade risks in project management. Bayesian theory and H_infin control strategy is used to study risks for dam safety on the basis of analyzing multi-scaling characteristics of risks. This method is used to identify key nodes and the critical path. In order to shorten the early warning time and control key nodes and the critical path, the trained DBN is adopted in risk management and robust control strategy is used in calculating the control water level. Then project risks can be controlled and a new decision support system can be provided for project management. The application of the proposed method to a case study shows that the method is reliable and practical.