Risk analysis using influence diagrams

Presents a new risk analysis approach that makes use of influence diagrams as a means to build the risk model. Describing uncertainty can be accomplished using either probability values (probabilistic influence diagrams) or linguistic terms (fuzzy influence diagrams). For fuzzy influence diagrams, fuzzy set theory is used to describe and manipulate uncertainties. On the other hand, Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the probabilistic inference for probabilistic influence diagrams. The paper outlines IDS, a software package developed to provide a better tool for evaluating and measuring risk