Prediction for the evolution of passenger structure within comprehensive transportation corridor based on Markov process

The key of future comprehensive transport corridor´s development is to establish an integrated passenger transport system, in which all resources are allocated rationally and the overall system effect is emphasized. While the overall effect depends largely on the structure of comprehensive transport system. Firstly, this paper makes an analysis and study for the affecting factors and mechanism of passenger structure evolution within comprehensive transportation corridor. Then it builds a model of passenger structure evolution based on Markov process and calibrates its parameters. Finally it makes an empirical study within Beijing-Shanghai corridor and verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of this model, which has achieved dynamic prediction of passenger structure evolution trend and direction, and improves theoretical system of passenger structure optimization at the same time.