Prediction of train operation conflict

Train operation conflicts are not inevitable on the busy railway networks. The exact definition of railway conflict is given and the train operation conflicts are classified into 7 types in this paper. Train operation conflict refers to the mutual restraint and the opposite effect when two trains will need to use the same technical equipment or train path as well as the train deviates from operational plan. There are many uncertainties in the train operation process due to the disturbances from the equipment factors, human factors and external environmental factors. The uncertainties such as uncertain running time in the section and the uncertain stopping time in the station make the time that technical equipment and other resources occupied by trains have uncertainty. Finally, a conflict prediction method and the process by train operation status derivation and conflict judging circularly are proposed.