Bayesian methods for data analysis in software engineering

Software engineering researchers analyze programs by applying a range of test cases, measuring relevant statistics and reasoning about the observed phenomena. Though the traditional statistical methods provide a rigorous analysis of the data obtained during program analysis, they lack the flexibility to build a unique representation for each program. Bayesian methods for data analysis, on the other hand, allow for flexible updates of the knowledge acquired through observations. Despite their strong mathematical basis and obvious suitability to software analysis, Bayesian methods are still largely under-utilized in the software engineering community, primarily because many software engineers are unfamiliar with the use of Bayesian methods to formulate their research problems. This tutorial will provide a broad introduction of Bayesian methods for data analysis, with a specific focus on problems of interest to software engineering researchers. In addition, the tutorial will provide an in-depth understanding of a subset of popular topics such as Bayesian inference, probabilistic prediction techniques, Markov models, information theory and sampling. The core concepts will be explained using case studies and the application of prominent statistical tools on examples drawn from software engineering research. At the end of the tutorial, the participants will acquire the necessary skills and background knowledge to formulate their research problems using Bayesian methods, and analyze their formulation using appropriate software tools.