DocumentCode :
2082745
Title :
Application of combined forecasting method to prediction of demand for the special purpose vehicle in China
Author :
Li, Guan-feng ; Liu, Cui
Author_Institution :
College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China
fYear :
2010
fDate :
4-6 Dec. 2010
Firstpage :
129
Lastpage :
132
Abstract :
This paper predicts the demand of the special purpose vehicle for the next few years based on the actual data of special purpose vehicle production in China since 1998. In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting, it establishes two kinds of combination forecasting model through the introduction of weight, according to the different methods to handle error. The composite models integrate the advantages of three single forecasting methods: the exponential smoothing, growth function and the GM (1, 1) model. Optimal combination forecasting model, which is determined by minimizing the sum of squared errors, makes the forecast more accurate. The predictive result will play an important guiding role in coordinating the supply and demand of special purpose vehicle and avoiding the mistakes in investment decision-making caused by out of control.
Keywords :
Biological system modeling; Data models; Forecasting; Predictive models; Production; Smoothing methods; Vehicles; composite prediction; growth function; special purpose vehicle; the GM (1,1); the exponential smoothing;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Information Science and Engineering (ICISE), 2010 2nd International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hangzhou, China
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-7616-9
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/ICISE.2010.5688555
Filename :
5688555
Link To Document :
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